This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing the Jaguars vs. the Titans for Fantasy Football Lineups. Fantasy rosters needed protective spray because key players continue to miss extended time due to injury. In kind, there have been plenty of great performances in kind from backups and secondary players filling in for injured studs. As a result, we have plenty to parse through and discuss each and every week. So let’s dig into some NFL DFS matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 12 Fantasy Football Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.
To read the FULL column, click HERE.
Be sure to check out today’s NFL Strategy Show with Dave Loughran and Sal Vetri!
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Total: 41.5
Line: TEN -3
Jaguars passing game
Nick Foles returned to the lineup last week after missing weeks with his broken collarbone. He was serviceable, throwing for 296 yards and two touchdowns. Of course, Jacksonville fell behind pretty early, which resulted in a whopping 47 pass attempts from Foles. The Jaguars called pass 84.4 percent of the time, which is obviously an anomaly from their 60.5 percent pass rate on the season. Look for Jacksonville to get back to the ground attack, which has me off Foles for NFL DFS, especially in a weaker matchup. This should be a slow-paced game, as these teams rank 31st and 27th in average seconds per play in neutral game scripts. The Titans are also allowing 1.67 points per drive on the year, the seventh-fewest in the league.
After a week of gushing over the connection between Foles and Dede Westbrook, it was Jacksonville’s constant WR1 D.J. Chark who made the most noise. He continued his magical season last week, hauling in eight of a whopping 15 targets for 104 yards and two touchdowns against the Colts. Chark is third in the league with 21 deep targets and fifth in end zone targets with 13, giving him plenty of NFL DFS upside that puts him on the map as a WR2 each week. He’ll line up against Adoree’ Jackson, a talented but very inconsistent cornerback. I won’t have much exposure to this slow-paced game in NFL DFS but Chark should not be on any seasonal benches.
Jaguars running game
It was weird to see such a low-volume game from Leonard Fournette, as he carried the ball just eight times with Jacksonville falling behind. If this was last year, Fournette would give you absolutely nothing if he had just eight carries in a game. However, because he is second among all running backs in routes run (311), Fournette salvaged his day with seven catches for 34 yards. Head coach Doug Marrone recently stated that the team needs to get Fournette the ball more, although we aren’t complaining about his 88.2 percent opportunity share, the second-highest rate among all running backs. The matchup against the Titans, who are set to get Jurrell Casey back, isn’t fantastic but Fournette is a lock for 23-25 touches and is slightly underpriced over on DraftKings.
Titans passing game
Coming off the bye, the red hot Ryan Tannehill will host the Jags. Since taking over as the starting quarterback, Tannehill is averaging 0.60 fantasy points per dropback, tied for the sixth-most in the NFL. And during that same span (since Week 7), he is third in 300-yard passing games and eighth in touchdown passes. He’s been using his legs a bit, too, rushing for over 35 yards in each of his last two starts, while adding a rushing touchdown back in Week 9. The matchup against the Jaguars is as mediocre as it gets, as Jacksonville is 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers, while still generating a top-five pressure rate (25.7%). Tannehill should be able to post top-17 NFL DFS numbers but his ceiling is capped in this slow-paced affair.
Corey Davis missed Week 10’s game against the Chiefs with a hip injury but practiced in full and is set to return. As you know, I rarely play Davis in NFL DFS because he always gets the opposition’s top corner and doesn’t get enough targets to mask his inefficiency. Meanwhile, A.J. Brown is the more explosive player, especially after the catch, but his price is flirting with $5,000, making him someone I won’t target in NFL DFS, either.
Honestly, my favorite Tennessee receiver might be Adam Humphries, who scored in the team’s last game and continues to operate out of the slot 87 percent of the time. Tannehill, meanwhile, is targeting the slot 50.7 percent of the time this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Humphries and Brown could make some plays once the ball is in their hands, as the Jaguars are allowing the third-most yards after the catch this year.
It looks like Delanie Walker is set to return from his ankle injury that kept him sidelined for three games. Assuming he’s back in action, you obviously can’t play Jonnu Smith in any NFL DFS formats, while Walker would serve as a low-ceiling tight end play.
Titans running game
Derrick Henry ran all over the Chiefs back in Week 10 to the tune of 188 yards and two touchdowns. He has been fantastic this season, averaging five yards per touch, 83.1 rushing yards per game and sporting a 31.5 percent juke rate. Henry also leads the league in yards after contact per attempt (3.78) and the Jaguars are inside the bottom-10 in missed tackles on the year. With a healthy 81.1 percent opportunity share, Henry makes for an elite NFL DFS play this week against a reeling Jaguars run defense that just allowed two different 100-yard rushers last weekend against the Colts.
They are allowing 48 percent of all carries from inside the five-yard line to be converted into touchdowns, the third-worst mark on the slate, while Henry has handled 100 percent of Tennessee’s carries from that area of the field. Henry has been a top-10 NFL DFS back in half of his games this season and I think he makes it a sixth this weekend. He’s one of my favorite running back plays of the week.
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