The Texans finally got their first win of the year, but now they have to face arguably the hottest team in the AFC in the Tennessee Titans. Could Deshaun Watson possibly steal a victory from his division rival Titans? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 11 games on tap for Week 6 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Texans – Titans NFL DFS picks for your daily fantasy football lineups.
CLICK HERE TO RETURN TO THE DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL + NFL DFS MATCHUPS HUB
For a full list of all our NFL DFS and fantasy football content this season, check out the NFL content schedule.
And don’t forget to join Matt Savoca and Dave Loughran, every Thursday morning at 11 ET on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Column for Week 6
Houston Texans (24.5) at Tennessee Titans (28.5)
Houston Passing Game
It only took the firing up their coach (and GM) for the Texans to finally get in the win column in 2020, on the back of what was by far Watson’s best day as a passer this season. He recorded 359 passing yards and three touchdowns on a season-high 71% completion rate. It was Watson’s second game in a row with 300 passing yards and third in a row with at least nine yards per attempt. He’s now been a top 12 option at the quarterback position each of the last two weeks. Watson’s next opponent, the Titans, presents an entirely different challenge for the Texans offense, however. Tennessee doesn’t necessarily rely on superstar play in their secondary (they rank 16th in PFF’s team coverage grade), and the Titans rank in the bottom seven in yards allowed per play, but they rank in the top seven defenses in points allowed per play. This “bend but don’t break” style of defense is a bit more high variance, but they just held Josh Allen and the Bills to 16 points, proof that the Titans’ defense is capable of stymieing prolific offenses with rushing quarterbacks — exactly who the Texans aim to be offensively.
The Texans will have a considerably higher chance of winning if they can continue scheming looks for their main two contributors in the passing game, Will Fuller (17th among receivers in the NFL in true weighted opportunity share) and Brandin Cooks (30th). Cooks had his breakout game as a member of the Texans in week 5, putting up 161 receiving yards and a score on eight receptions. He has now tied Fuller for the team lead in targets over the last two weeks, and even though Cooks scored zero fantasy points in one of the contests, Cooks still leads Fuller in overall efficiency during this time, with a receiver air conversion ratio (RACR) of 1.08, compared to Fuller’s 0.8. The touchdowns have saved Fuller in recent weeks, but that doesn’t mean the “volume pendulum” couldn’t shift back towards Fuller this weekend. A 12-target, 150-air-yard game is never out of the question.
Randall Cobb is the clear-cut third option in the passing game for the Texans. He hasn’t left a contest without receiving four or more targets this season. Relative to his salary (Cobb is the 45th-highest-salary wide receiver on the main slate), Awesemo’s projections are actually most bullish on Cobb compared to the other two primary Texans receivers. Despite the so-so matchup for the three Texans’ receivers, none have a projected ownership greater than 6%, making each solid contrarian plays. All three are earning significant usage from an aggressive quarterback in Watson, who’s beginning to regain his typical efficiency.
Houston Rushing Game
David Johnson remains entrenched as the Texans’ No. 1 backfield option. Over the last three weeks, Johnson has seen 16, 19 and 21 total opportunities, while Duke Johnson has only seen 13 total looks during that span. The Titans are an above-average matchup for running backs, as Tennessee has allowed 2.6 PPR fantasy points above opponent average to the position through their first four games. As David Johnson continues to slide in salary (he’s now the 19th-highest-salary back on the main slate), he becomes more and more of a usage-based value play, as his guaranteed touches relative to salary begins to look more and more appealing. Johnson hasn’t done himself any favors, though. His 2020 has been inefficient once again, as he simply hasn’t been able to create on his own. He ranks 28th among running backs in yards created per touch and 18th in evaded tackles. And he’s running behind PlayerProfiler.com’s 30th-ranked offensive line. Even with the highly projected touch volume and reduced salary, Johnson is an extremely tough bet this weekend.
Tennessee Passing Game
In one of the most surprising shellackings in recent memory, the Titans put up a staggering 42 points on the typically staunch Buffalo Bills defense (without their best cornerback, to be fair), thanks in large part to Ryan Tannehill, who threw for his second three-touchdown game this season. He also added a score on the ground en route becoming the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback of week 5. Tannehill didn’t even need to take many aggressive shots downfield (he only attempted 28 passes and a season low 181 air yards), and in that context, his 195 passing yards are quite efficient. As mentioned in last week’s matchups column (when discussing Robby Anderson), Tannehill’s elite talent was simply masked from the public until last season due to Adam Gase’s inability to properly recognize or utilize talent wherever he coaches.
The Texans defense isn’t effective enough to deter fantasy gamers from using any of the Titans’ primary weapons, but Houston is, on the whole, a stronger unit than their team record implies. They rank well above average (less advantageous for offenses) in fantasy points allowed versus opponent average against quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends, which is in sharp contrast to their 24th overall team defensive rating from PFF. Tennessee enters the weekend with the highest net composite advantage (a singular metric combining all offensive grades to comparable defensive grades, weighted towards passing advantages) of any team on the slate. If those metrics are to be believed, it could be another field day for this explosive Tennessee offense.
If the explosions were to occur, the main receiving beneficiary, once again, would be A.J. Brown, who returned with a vengeance from his multi-week absence (knee) to command over 32% of the team’s targets (including over 40% of the team’s red zone targets), and over 48% of the team’s air yards. In other words, he was everywhere, beating the Bills underneath and over the top and exhibiting the type of athletic ability that made a premium target of fantasy drafters during the offseason. Especially while fellow receivers Corey Davis and Adam Humphries work their way back from the COVID-19 reserve list (players time spent on the list has been highly variable), Brown appears to be fundamentally mispriced as the 21st-highest-salary wide receiver on the main slate. Awesemo’s projection for Brown this week puts him inside the top 10 wide receivers.
If Tannehill wasn’t tossing the ball Brown’s way in week 5, he was targeting tight ends, with Jonnu Smith continuing to stay involved (seven targets, two in the red zone), while Anthony Firkser also saw five looks, with an average depth of target of 9.8 (compare that to Brown’s ADOT of 9.7). It can’t be trusted week to week by any means, but even five targets and 50 expected air yards is plenty of opportunity for a tight end if the salary is right, and Firkser’s salary is $2,500 this weekend. At a position as volatile as tight end, taking a chance on Firkser could be a savvy move that helps maximize optionality for the rest of your roster.
Tennessee Rushing Game
You’ve heard it before:
“Derrick Henry doesn’t catch passes.”
“Derrick Henry needs touchdowns.”
“Derrick Henry is game script dependent.”
Henry threw someone into another world, OK? Jokes aside, Henry broke eight tackles Tuesday night against a defense that was committed to stopping him at all costs. He ranks second in the NFL in carries, first in red zone touches and third in rush yards. Houston’s defense has been the fifth-most advantageous matchup (using fantasy points allowed versus opponent average) in the NFL for running backs. With a weekly floor of 22 opportunities, in a matchup the Titans have a high probability of leading (and winning), Henry remains a no-brainer option even at a top-five salary with sky-high ownership. It’s all systems go for Henry this weekend.
Prediction: Titans 34, Texans 30
CLICK HERE TO RETURN TO THE DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL + NFL DFS MATCHUPS HUB
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more NFL DFS picks and daily fantasy football matchup content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page, just click HERE.
