It’s another nicely sized slate today with seven games to discuss for tonight’s swath of NBA DFS picks. Damian Lillard and Kemba Walker remain out while some of their most benefiting teammates are now obscenely expensive to account for the opportunity. It looks like a tough slate without a lot of killer value compared to yesterday’s batch of games but we’ll do our best to find an edge. Go right now and follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags to make sure you don’t miss any of my content! But let’s get into it with the Feb. 25 Switch and Hedge.
Podcast fan? Did you know all our daily YouTube shows are on our podcast channel? Click this link to check out our Awesemo podcast stations and get entered into our podcast giveaway, simply: Like, Rate, Review & Subscribe and you’ll be entered to win a FREE monthly Awesemo+ platinum pass! If you’re not on iTunes and can’t leave a comment, just hit us up on Twitter with a screenshot of your rating and we’ll get you entered in!
No Walker and No Lillard In Portland
The Celtics head to Portland with Kemba Walker out yet again for a matchup against the Blazers, who’ll be without Damian Lillard again. On the Boston side, Jaylen Brown looks like the best value with a 27% usage rate overall when Walker is off the court. Gordon Hayward also is playably priced but with a projection that looks close enough to Brown’s that most players will end up with the cheaper option. That gives me some tournament interest for Hayward.
Jayson Tatum’s price is tougher to trust despite his team-high 32% usage when Walker is off the court. It’s still a strong matchup given Portland’s 110.9 defensive rating and Tatum will be underowned despite having the highest ceiling on the team. Daniel Theis gains less from Walker’s absence, but revenge narratives aside, you’d expect him to see substantially more run than Enes Kanter. Theis has over 28 minutes in four out of the last five games with the fifth being one where he struggled with foul issues.
C.J. McCollum’s price is now officially a question despite the substantial boost that Lillard’s absence provides. He has a 33% usage rate on the year with Lillard and former Blazer Kent Bazemore off the floor this year with a tremendous 30% assist rate. McCollum was one rebound shy of a triple-double in his last game versus Detroit as he put up 76.3 fantasy points and 41 real-life points versus Detroit. He also has over 10 assists in the two Lillard-less games recently. His price is high, but I’d still have interest in tournaments with him projected for around 5% ownership on DraftKings and around 10% on FanDuel.
Carmelo Anthony is at a more playable price. He gets up to a 25% usage rate without Lillard and Bazemore and he’ll likely see less defensive attention than McCollum. He and Hassan Whiteside look fine, though the latter is highly priced enough that he’s far from a must-have. I also think Gary Trent will project well for many people and he’s seen over 34 minutes starting in the two games sans Lillard while not topping 23 fantasy points in either. Trent interests me more in lineups without McCollum. He or Anfernee Simons likely only succeed in a meaningful way if McCollum underperforms.
Two Eastern Conference Juggernauts Clash
Milwaukee heads to Toronto after an exceedingly disappointing Giannis Antetokounmpo effort yesterday where foul trouble and a slow start ruined a big portion of lineups. His 42 fantasy points was his third-lowest fantasy output of the year. In this game that should be competitive, I have no issue going back to Giannis other than there currently being far less obvious value today. Giannis put up 77.3 fantasy points versus the Raptors in the beginning of the season and his chalk failure yesterday is likely to turn a lot of people off. George Hill looks like passable value at a minimum price, but that would sum up my interest in Milwaukee.
Toronto’s side looks a little better. Fred VanVleet seems particularly undervalued in a game where he’ll likely get to put up some shots from deep. Kyle Lowry has shown much more upside and put up 51.5 fantasy points against Milwaukee earlier in the year and he’s in play for tournaments, but the discount on VanVleet is far more substantial. Serge Ibaka also is cheap for his role with Marc Gasol out. You could talk me into Pascal Siakam as a tournament play, but he’s at a tough price to want a lot of. The field’s 13% is about right for him.
Check us out on TWITTER, where we talk sports, share articles and have lots of giveaways. Just click HERE
NBA DFS Chalk De’Aaron Fox Heads to Golden State
De’Aaron Fox projects to be a top-owned play today and the status is well deserved against Golden State’s 110.6 defensive rating. Fox is a fairly volatile per-minute player, but that should work in his favor tonight against Golden State with lots of assist upside and buckets to go around. Bogdan Bogdanovic and Harrison Barnes both look decently priced, though Barnes has had more upside recently. Bogdanovic has only cracked 30 fantasy points once in his last four games while Barnes is over 34.5 fantasy points in four out of his last five. Nemanja Bjelica looks okay too, though Harry Giles’ recent boost in minutes has cut into his potential. Giles shockingly played 31 minutes last game, the most he’s played in his career. He could get played off the floor with Golden State’s lack of size, but I like Giles even with just a 22-minute projection.
Marquese Chriss and Draymond Green are currently questionable and both guys’ statuses are important for NBA DFS. Chriss would be on the cusp of playable to me if he’s in, but Kevin Looney would likely start again if he misses. Looney would still not see enough run to have big upside. Eric Paschall started for Green last game and he’d be more playable than Looney if both Green and Chriss were out. Damion Lee is also more appealing if Green and Chriss miss but looks okay either way.
I also wouldn’t sleep on Juan Toscano-Anderson. He played 28 minutes last game and has 30 and 37.5 fantasy points in his last two games. His current 57% shooting from the floor is unsustainable, but he’s rebounded fairly well and defended decently. He’d likely not see enough run if Chriss and Green are in unless there were a blowout. I’m less inclined for Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole with where their prices are. Poole has benefited from his starting role, but his ceiling is mostly priced out. Wiggins likely has more upside but doesn’t seem like a must-have.
The Pelicans and Lakers Get the NBA DFS Slate’s Highest Combined Total
Brandon Ingram remains a little too cheap, but his chalky ownership is a bit of a concern against a tough-defending Lakers squad with a 103.7 defensive rating. Ingram’s rates have all taken a bit of a drop with Zion Williamson in the mix and I’d worry somewhat for Ingram’s ceiling in this matchup. It’s a revenge game so maybe he forces up some more shots, but this team is now mostly fully stocked, and while I love Ingram, I think he’s a little overvalued based on his season-long sample size that includes much less Williamson.
I feel similarly about Jrue Holiday, though his ability to contribute assists has him on a solid run currently. Holiday averaged 49 fantasy points in his last five games with nine or more assists in each of them. He’s also been involved in the most plays by a substantial margin since Williamson joined the team with 348 shots, assists and turnovers, more than Williamson’s 278 and Lonzo Ball’s 277 during that stretch.
Anthony Davis and LeBron James look as solid as ever on the Lakers’ side. Both guys project as identical NBA DFS values for me with LeBron projected for a bit more raw points. I’d take the lower projected ownership on Davis if I had to choose one of them. I also wouldn’t sleep on Rajon Rondo as value today. The pace here will give him a lot of opportunity for his 33.7% assist rate in the second unit and he’s seen as much as 27 minutes recently when playing well.
Chicago Gets Even More Short-Handed
Luke Kornet recently joined Chicago’s walking wounded and that offers some opportunity for Daniel Gafford. Gafford played just 22 minutes last game, but he suffered from frequent foul issues in all of his stints. With Wendell Carter still unable to play, it should mean close to a 48 minute split for Gafford and Cristiano Felicio. Neither is a stellar per-minute guy, but both are on the cusp of playable. Coby White is a slightly tougher question. He’s had 34 minutes and at least 31% usage in his last two games. If White can maintain that much usage, he’s a sneaky play tonight with his price-up likely to throw people off his scent. I’m less into Zach LaVine and Thaddeus Young with where their prices are while Tomas Satoransky looks fine. He played 39 minutes last game.
Steven Adams is in a good spot with Chicago’s weakness inside. He’s boosted his rebound rate to 20.5% and his usage to 19% this month, just enough to make him look more playable at his rising price point. He had double-digit boards in his last five games and double-doubles in his last four. Nerlens Noel looks like decent value in general behind him but especially if Adams had foul issues. Danilo Gallinari will be chalky today but with likely not the highest ceiling. He’s priced well, but he hasn’t cracked 40 fantasy points in his last 10 games.
Dennis Schroder’s price appeals to me more than Chris Paul’s and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s. Schroder has still hovered around 29 minutes lately despite worse results and he should carve up the second unit for Chicago. It projects to be a low-paced game overall, so it’s hard to want to load up on Oklahoma City’s side.
Looking for more NBA DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page, just click HERE
